OPEC cuts 2020 oil demand forecast, US crude oil inventory

2020-11-27 13:05

 US crude oil surged more than 3% on Tuesday as concerns about the Asian public crisis subsided. However, OPEC is not so optimistic. In its monthly report released within the day, OPEC sharply lowered its forecast for oil demand growth this year, saying that the Asian public health crisis was the "main factor" behind its decision.

In a closely watched monthly report released on Wednesday, OPEC cut its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2020 to 990000 barrels a day. That's 230, 000 barrels a day less than last month's estimate. The revised forecast may make it more reasonable for OPEC and non OPEC oil producing countries, including Russia, to implement further production cuts as soon as possible.
OPEC said in the report that the impact of the Asian public health crisis on the economy has increased the uncertainty surrounding global economic growth in 2020 and even the growth of global oil demand in 2020. Obviously, the economic impact of this crisis needs to be continuously monitored and evaluated, and the impact on the oil market in 2020 will be further evaluated.
Since peaking in early January, both butoil and USO have fallen about 20% on concerns about demand during the outbreak of the Asian public health crisis. The WHO says the crisis poses a very serious threat to the world.
OPEC said the rapid spread of the virus is similar to influenza, and it is necessary to further reduce oil demand forecasts.
Compared with OPEC's assessment last month, China's oil demand in the first half of this year was cut by 200000 barrels a day. This led OPEC to revise its forecast of global oil demand growth downward to 400000 barrels per day in the first half of 2020, so it revised down to 200000 barrels per day for the whole year.
OPEC said it is clear that the timing of the public health crisis has exacerbated the impact on China's transportation fuel demand because it coincides with the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday, when millions of Chinese go home to celebrate with their families and friends or travel abroad.
Earlier this month, OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, pushed for an emergency meeting with non OPEC members to cut oil production and offset the impact of the crisis. According to reports, the committee that advises producers has recommended reducing oil production by 600000 barrels per day to ease pressure on the energy market. However, Russia is still considering whether to sign additional production cuts.
OPEC's regular meeting is scheduled for March 5. An earlier meeting is still possible, but it has not been announced.
Earlier API data showed that US crude oil inventories increased by 6 million barrels to 438.9 million barrels in the week ending February 7, gasoline inventories increased by 1.1 million barrels, and distillate oil inventories decreased by 2.3 million barrels.
In addition, traders will provide the impetus for crude oil inventories to rebound from 23:30 in July if the crude oil price and oil inventory data are lower than that expected in the previous 2:30.
Crude oil stockpiles in the United States increased for the third consecutive week last week, while distillate stocks declined for the fourth consecutive week, a survey on Tuesday showed. On average, 10 analysts surveyed estimated that crude oil inventories increased by about 3 million barrels in the week ending February 7.
Analysts estimate gasoline inventories rose by 500000 barrels last week. The storage of distillate oil depots including diesel oil and heating oil decreased by 600000 barrels. According to the survey, the capacity utilization rate of the refinery is expected to drop by 0.4% last week, from 87.4% from January 31 to the current week.
However, quandaryfx analysts pointed out that from the crude oil supply and demand basic data, crude oil fundamentals are still optimistic. According to current trends, crude oil inventories will fall by about 20% by the end of this year. According to the pattern of the past 25 years, this means that oil prices may rise by an average of nearly 50% in 2020. But at present, this prediction is difficult to achieve.
At 22:15 Beijing time, US crude oil is now at US $51.33/barrel.